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What kind of things can she bring up in court to try to prevent me from getting custody?

Background info:
     -Divorced in Indiana in 1997.
     -3 children now ages 17, 16, and 14.  
     -17yr old will be 18 in May & will be going off to college in the fall.
     -14yr old son desires to move in with us.
Current order:
     -Mother has full custody
     -Reasonable Visistation (due to working a rotating schedule)
          -can have the children at any reasonable time
                -ex has basically abused this authority
Current relevant info:
     -I now reside in AZ due to a job relocation in 2007
     -14yr old son want to move in. This is the age in Indiana where the child has the ability to have a preference. (not that it will be honored by the courts, but he can say that he would prefer to move)
     -He is in the 8th grade.
     -Does not get along well with Step dad.  
     -Is doing poorly in school he had two F's on his last report card.  
     -Has asked to move in for the last year.  
     -Ex wife works Mon-Thur on 3rd shift so the children stay with Grandparents over night, but not every night (not sure on the reasoning)
     -Son has tried to talk to mom about his desire to move and has been told "I'm your mother and I know what is best for you, you will be staying right here.  There is no need to discuss this further".  
     -Ex told him that either he gets his grades up or he wont be able to visit at all because he will be in summer school.
     -16 yr old daughter does not want to move as she is in HS and has a social life.  I am fine with this.
     -Ex is not a bad mother by any means.  She provides for them and loves them very much.  She does make snarky remaraks about myself and my wife on a semi regular basis, but I don't feel that it would do me any good to argue that point.  

Questions:

1.  I am requesting a set visitation where distance is a factor as mapped out in the Indiana Parenting Time Guidelines, what are the odds of this being denied?  (7wks in the summer, every spring break, and one week at Christmas alternating the week including the holiday)

2.  Re: my son, is there a significant change in circumstances in order to petition a modification?  If I do so do I need to petition for both children or can I leave things as they are for my daughter since she would rather not be involved?  What should I be prepared for other than outrageous attorney fees?


Thanks for any help you can provide.