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What are the typical hurdles one has to overcome to get a change of custody?  What constitutes a change in circumstances of this magnitude?

In my case, ex-wife's new husband assaulted one of the kids, pled guilty to it, but she is blaming and grounding the daughter for it.  She also does not foster a good relationship between me and the kids, deliberately excludes me from key events.

Ex wife's new husband assaulted my ex and my daughter.  Pled guilty to the charge against my daughter, was given probation.  Ex requested non-prosecution for the assault against herself, is defending the guy and blaming the whole thing on my daughter.  I have filed for a full order of protection, CPS investigated and doesn't recommend the judge grant it.   We had a partial hearing on this, but it got continued.  For the moment, he isn't allowed around the children.

Judge has told me that I will need to make a very compelling case, in order for her to overturn the CPS recommendation.  Also the fact that the plea agreement in the criminal case did not restrict him from the house.

I disagree with the CPS report for several reasons.  The caseworker's opinion is that my ex and I "need to set aside our differences."  However, this is not a factor, as there have been no problems between her and I, and both of us stated as such in front of the judge last week.  We actually have a fairly decent relationship, as far as exes go, in my opinion.

Also, the caseworker didn't interview the children separately.  My oldest daughter (not the one who was attacked) has been brainwashed for years, is convinced that the stepfather is the greatest thing since sliced bread, etc. and resents me because, godforbid, I ask her to do her share of chores and demand that she show respect toward others.  Anything negative which might be said in her presence, will get right back to the mother who will then ground the child in question.

I am also concerned that my daughter is the type who will tell each parent what they want to hear, to an extent.  Although the story she told me about the assault is pretty much corroborated by the police and medical report.

I'm not too likely to win this case.  I also don't know if I have enough yet to make a motion to modify, to ask for custody.  I'd be asking for the kids to move with me out of state.

Anyone have any advice?