transfer of custody?

[IceMountain]

Looking for opinions.

CP and NCP had a child 8 years ago.  Parties never married.  Paternity was not established.  CP relocated and did not allow any contact with NCP and the child.  NCP has received very little information over the past 8 years regarding the whereabouts of the child and has only a few pictures obtained through other sources.

Fast forward to now.  CP is facing prison time for theft, drug use and forgery.  NCP has been served with paternity papers from the state.  NCP is not sure what is going on, or why papers suddenly served.  Could be child is a ward of the state, in foster care, receiving state assistance.  NCP does not know.  Paternity test is next week.

If CP indeed goes to prison, how likely is it that NCP could gain custody?

NCP also has a record for drug use and theft.  NCP travels for work.  As far as the state is concerned, NCP is 'legally separated' from current wife.  (in order for NCP's other child and wife to receive benefits)

CP is in AZ, NCP is in IA.

NCP and wife think custody is going to be easy and are already making plans, talking to the other children about the possibility of having a new brother, etc.  

These are all the details I know.  All opinions appreciated.